Transparent method · no composite certainty score
How opportunities are assessed
The map separates evidence of unmet need from the practical and commercial work required to open a service. A strong capacity signal is not the same as a verified investment case.
Capacity gap
Reported or forecast difference between service demand and currently available capacity.
Demand persistence
Whether housing, births, employment and travel patterns suggest pressure may continue.
Commercial viability
Affordability, achievable income, occupancy, funded-hours economics and operating costs.
Delivery feasibility
Workforce, premises, planning, outdoor space, transport and time-to-open constraints.
Data confidence
Authority, age, geographic fit and limitations of the evidence supporting the record.
What a record can say
- Capacity gap
- Strong
- Demand persistence
- Strong
- Commercial viability
- Unverified
- Delivery feasibility
- Moderate
- Data confidence
- High
We do not convert these dimensions into a false “survival probability.” A probability would require backtesting, calibration against real openings and closures, live verification and a documented economic model.
Evidence-status system
Every quantitative value in the maintained dataset carries one of these statuses. Missing provider counts and place totals display as “Data required,” never as zero.
Pilot sources and geography
The Suffolk records are grounded in the council’s 2025–2026 childcare sufficiency assessment. Local authority boundary geometry is the ONS December 2024 ultra-generalised dataset. OpenStreetMap provides the basemap and representative locality references.
Opportunity markers identify reviewed clusters, not premises. Radius overlays are distance-based investigation areas, not drive-time catchments. Provider-level evidence is omitted until a reviewed, documented extract is available.